NAR Adjusts Housing Sales Forecast for 2025 and Beyond
Revised Sales Projections
The National Association of Realtors (NAR) has revised its sales forecasts, marking a downturn from earlier predictions made in late 2024. The anticipated existing-home sales for 2025 have been adjusted downward to approximately 4.3 million units, a notable change from the previous estimate of 4.9 million. Additionally, the forecast for new-home sales growth has been decreased from 11% to 5%.
2026 Housing Outlook
Looking ahead to 2026, NAR has changed its expectations for new-home sales growth to 5% instead of the earlier prediction of 8%. Meanwhile, existing-home sales growth is expected to increase by 11%, remaining within the previously stated range of 10% to 15%.
Market Sentiment
Despite the downward revisions, NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun expressed a positive outlook during a recent webinar about the housing market’s future. “The worst is over [for home sales],” Yun stated. He highlighted that the inventory challenges are lessening, and the likelihood of a recession remains low due to job growth and declining mortgage rates. This environment is expected to create more opportunities in the housing market this year.
Affordability Challenges
However, increasing home prices pose ongoing challenges for affordability. NAR’s latest forecast has shifted its projections for home-price growth from an anticipated 2% in both 2025 and 2026 to 3% and 4%, respectively. This adjustment reflects the continuing pressure on prospective homebuyers.
Comparison with Other Forecasts
The revised estimate of 4.3 million existing-home sales aligns closely with other forecasts, such as those from Realtor.com, which predicts sales at around 4 million, demonstrating a consensus among market analysts. HousingWire’s comprehensive forecast from Lead Analyst Logan Mohtashami and Altos founder Mike Simonsen similarly anticipated about 4.2 million sales with a 3.5% rise in home prices.
Current Sales Data
As of a recent report, existing-home sales for February were recorded at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.26 million, with the median sale price showing an increase of 3.8%. This data reinforces the adjusted forecasts from NAR, indicating a cautious but steady approach moving forward in the housing market.
