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Understanding Tenant Risk in the Real Estate Sector

by Best Houses Team
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The Evolution of Multifamily Property Management Post-Great Recession

Since the Great Recession (TGR), multifamily owners and operators in the real estate sector have strategically shifted their focus toward maintaining high occupancy rates, albeit at a higher risk. This adaptation arose from the financial pressures and market changes that began in the late 2000s. As the economy faltered during this period, a notable shift in rent rolls was observed across the United States. Renewal lease rates began to surpass those of new renters, causing alarm for multifamily property managers who faced unprecedented challenges. To protect their cash flows, operators prioritized removing leasing barriers and keeping occupancy rates elevated.

Increased Competition and Changing Tenant Demographics

The intense competition among property owners intensified in the aftermath of the recession, which was compounded by an influx of new tenants, many of whom were formerly homeowners who had faced foreclosure. Given these changes, multifamily operators found themselves making informed yet strategic decisions as a significant portion of their tenant pool included individuals who previously would not have met traditional screening criteria. This shift marked the beginning of a new risk management approach that is still evident in current practices.

The Impact of Security Deposit Reevaluation

Traditionally, property managers have mitigated the risk of unsuitable tenants with security deposits. However, the pressure to attract more renters and boost occupancy rates resulted in a noticeable decline in average deposits collected in the post-recession landscape. US Census data indicates that in 2010, the common security deposit was equal to one month’s rent, averaging around $855. However, following the TGR, the deposit amounts began dropping, with current figures showing that the average is now less than $500, roughly 0.35 months of rent. This decline reflects a deliberate industry decision aimed at reducing financial barriers for prospective renters.

Measuring the Success of Occupancy Strategies

A review of national occupancy data from the CoStar database indicates that this high occupancy strategy has yielded some successes. In 2010, the average occupancy rate stood at 92.65%. Over the next decade, while fluctuations occurred, occupancy rates ultimately stabilized, resulting in an average rate of 93.55% by 2023—a difference of nearly 1 percentage point. This improvement in occupancy rates is a notable achievement in a highly competitive market. However, the financial implications and overall effectiveness of this strategy remain contentious topics of discussion among industry professionals.

The Rise of Bad Debt Expenses

It is essential to examine the trade-offs linked to this shift towards higher occupancy rates, which includes an increase in bad debt expenses. In 2010, property management companies typically budgeted between 0.5% and 0.75% for bad debts, whereas today, this figure has escalated to a range of 1% to 2.5%. This increase suggests that while occupancy rates climbed, the number of non-performing debts also grew substantially. For example, adding occupancy points to a typical 300-unit property generates increased rental income, but the corresponding rise in bad debts can negate these gains. Comparisons between 2020 occupancy rates and more recent statistics demonstrate a concerning trend—any benefits from higher occupancy are being overshadowed by the associated risks and costs.

Strategies for Risk Management

With the acknowledgment that maintaining high occupancy is accompanied by rising bad debt risks, property managers face critical choices moving forward. One avenue is revisiting security deposit requirements to safeguard against future financial losses, yet landlords must recognize that tenants increasingly expect lower deposits. Another option is to enhance fraud detection and identity verification processes during tenant onboarding, although no system can guarantee against future economic fluctuations that might affect even the most qualified applicants. Alternatively, property owners can explore risk transfer solutions, such as surety bonds or lease insurance, to mitigate the financial burden associated with potential tenant defaults.

Conclusion

The multifamily property landscape has undergone significant alterations since the Great Recession, with operators balancing the dual priorities of high occupancy rates and financial risk management. While efforts to increase tenant inflow have proven somewhat successful in raising occupancy rates, questions arise regarding their overall economic effectiveness. As property managers navigate this complex environment, adopting comprehensive risk transfer strategies can offer a viable path forward, providing a more sustainable approach to operations while maintaining tenant accessibility. The evolution of these practices will be crucial in shaping the future of multifamily housing.

FAQs

What are the reasons for the decline in security deposits post-recession?

The decline can be attributed to the need to lower barriers for prospective renters, particularly in a competitive market where attracting tenants is crucial.

How has the bad debt expense changed since 2010?

The budgeted bad debt expense has increased from an average of 0.5% to a range of 1% to 2.5%, indicating a significant rise in non-performing loans.

What strategies can property managers use to mitigate financial risks?

Property managers can explore options such as surety bonds, lease insurance, improving fraud detection methods, or reverting to stricter security deposit requirements.

What is lease insurance, and how does it differ from traditional security deposits?

Lease insurance spreads risk across a broader pool of renters and eliminates the need for subrogation by insuring each lease up to a specified coverage limit, as opposed to relying solely on a one-time deposit.

Will the focus on increasing occupancy rates continue moving forward?

While increasing occupancy rates will likely remain a priority, property managers must also adapt to the accompanying financial risks and explore sustainable practices to manage these challenges effectively.

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