Positive Growth Indicators

Recently, the housing market has observed several weeks of year-over-year growth, a notable improvement compared to prior years. This positive trend comes as mortgage rates have shown slight increases, primarily resting around the 6.64% mark. Experts suggest that if rates head downward toward 6%, home sales could see a significant boost.

Recent Market Data

Pending Sales Data

Weekly pending contract statistics from Altos provide crucial insight into housing demand trends. After mortgage rates dipped to approximately 6% last year, there was marked improvement in pending sales figures. However, in the latter part of 2024, increased rates led to a marginal decline in these sales year-over-year.

Weekly pending contracts showed the following figures:

• 2025: 333,385
• 2024: 345,502
• 2023: 320,804

Mortgage Rates and Economic Indicators

Forecasts for 2025 indicate that mortgage rates are expected to range from 5.75% to 7.25%, while the 10-year yield may fluctuate between 3.80% and 4.70%. Despite recent volatility in the stock market, bond yields and mortgage rates remained stable, presenting a complex scenario for potential home buyers and investors.

Current Mortgage Spreads

Improvements in mortgage spreads in 2024 and early 2025 have significantly influenced the current housing market dynamics. Typically, spreads hover between 1.60% and 1.80%. Had the challenging spreads from 2023 persisted, mortgage rates would currently be approximately 0.74% higher. Conversely, if spreads normalize, current mortgage rates could drop by as much as 0.76% to 0.86%, leading to rates closer to 6%.

Housing Inventory Trends

As spring arrives, the expected rise in housing inventory is becoming evident. The active inventory has been gradually moving towards more normalized levels, with a recent change from 642,359 to 655,626 active listings. This contrasts with last year’s change from 500,579 to 507,160, indicating a more robust housing landscape.

New Listings and Market Predictions

Although initial predictions for new listings this year underestimated the eventual figures, there is growing optimism as the market nears pre-pandemic levels. The most recent data shows:

• 2025: 68,191 new listings
• 2024: 59,542 new listings
• 2023: 41,415 new listings

During the previous housing bubble, new listings surged between 250,000 and 400,000 weekly, underlining the ongoing journey towards normalcy.

Price Reduction Trends

In an average year, around one-third of homes undergo price reductions due to market dynamics, with current data reflecting a rise in price cuts this year. Presently, the percentage of homes experiencing price cuts stands at:

• 2025: 34%
• 2024: 31%
• 2023: 31%

The ongoing increase in price cuts aligns with rising inventory and sustained high mortgage rates, impacting home price growth predictions.

Looking Ahead: Key Upcoming Data

In the coming week, attention will focus on the Federal Reserve’s meetings, retail sales data, and other housing statistics, which could influence market sentiments and trends. Investors and homeowners should stay informed as these economic indicators unfold, shaping the housing landscape as we progress into spring.